Summary
The glyphosate industry is in a period of transformation. Domestic policies promote green substitution, international demand depends on the expansion of genetically modified crops, and technological innovation and enviromental protection upgrades have become the core of competition. It is recommended to pay attention to leading enterprises (such as Xingfa Group) and market opportunities for high - efficiency formulations, while remaining vigilant against policy and market fluctuations.
The following is a comprehensive analysis of the latest domestic and international dynamics in the glyphosate industry in February 2025:
I. Domestic Market Dynamics
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Policy Orientation and Reduction and Efficiency Enhancement
1. The state continues to promote the policy of reducing pesticide use. The "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Comprehensive Green Transformation of Agricultural Development and Promoting Rural Ecological Revitalization" issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in December 2024 proposes to promote green prevention and control technologies, combine biological control with unified prevention and control, and reduce the use proportion of high - risk pesticides such as glyphosate.
2. Provinces and cities have actively responded. For example, Henan Province requires the re - evaluation of highly toxic and high - risk pesticides to be completed by 2025, and Hainan Province plans to reduce pesticide use by 12% compared to 2020 by 2027.
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Production Capacity and Supply - Demand Pattern
1. The total domestic glyphosate production capacity is approximately 810,000 tons per year. Leading enterprises such as Xingfa Group (230,000 tons per year), Fuhua Chemical (150,000 tons per year), and Xin'an Co., Ltd. (80,000 tons per year) dominate the market.
2. In 2024, affected by high - temperature power restrictions and the off - season of demand, the industry's operating rate was approximately 65%. There was significant inventory pressure, and prices fluctuated downward. However, the increase in South American planting areas in the second half of the year (such as soybeans and corn in Brazil) is expected to drive export demand.
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Cost and Price Fluctuations
1. In 2024, the cost of glyphosate produced by the glycine method reached 24,821 yuan per ton (a year - on - year increase of 3.3%), mainly due to the price increase of raw materials such as yellow phosphorus and methanol. The cost of the IDA method remained relatively stable (about 20,167 yuan per ton).
2. The current domestic market price is approximately 35,000 - 38,000 yuan per ton. In the short term, it may continue to decline due to inventory pressure and weak demand. However, in the medium - and long - term, the commercialization and promotion of genetically modified crops may boost demand.
II. International Market Dynamics
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Global Supply - Demand and Competition Pattern
1. The global glyphosate production capacity is approximately 1.18 million tons per year. Bayer (formerly Monsanto) dominates the overseas market with a production capacity of 370,000 tons, and China accounts for 68% of the global production capacity.
2. North America and South America are the main export markets. In 2024, China's exports to North America increased significantly. It is expected that the demand for glyphosate granules in Brazil will recover in 2025 due to low inventory.
1. The European Union has extended the use license of glyphosate until 2025 but requires strengthened risk assessment; 20 countries such as Mexico and France have implemented partial bans.
2. Competition in the international market has intensified. China's exports need to pay attention to tariff policies and exchange rate fluctuations. For example, adjustments to US import policies may affect trade flows.
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Product Structure Upgrading
1. The proportion of granules and water - miscible agents is increasing (it is expected that granules will account for more than 30% of the market by 2030), replacing traditional powder - type products to reduce environmental pollution.
2. The technology of biodegradable glyphosate is in the research and development stage. Key enterprises such as Yangnong Chemical are promoting the optimization of the IDA process.
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Demand Driven by Genetically Modified Crops
80% - 90% of global genetically modified crops (such as glyphosate - resistant soybeans and corn) rely on glyphosate for weeding. The commercialization pilot of genetically modified crops in China is accelerating. It is expected that the domestic genetically modified planting area will exceed 100 million mu by 2030, driving a 5% - 8% increase in glyphosate demand.
IV. Enterprise Competition and Strategic Adjustment
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Consolidation of the Advantages of Leading Enterprises
1. Xingfa Group has a leading cost - control ability with a production capacity of 230,000 tons and an integrated industrial chain (self - producing yellow phosphorus and glycine). Yangnong Chemical focuses on the IDA process for differential competition.
2. The industry concentration continues to increase. In 2024, the market share of the top five enterprises exceeded 60%, and small and medium - sized backward production capacity is being gradually phased out.
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International M&A and Layout
Domestic enterprises are accelerating overseas expansion. For example, Runfeng Co., Ltd. has established a distribution network in Brazil; international giants such as Bayer have consolidated their market positions through mergers and acquisitions.
V. Future Outlook and Risk Warnings
1. From 2025 to 2030, the global glyphosate market size is expected to have a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.6%. China's share is expected to increase from 25% to 28%. The demand for high - efficiency formulations (such as ammonium salt aqueous solutions) will increase significantly.
2. The price trend is affected by raw material costs, environmental protection policies, and the progress of genetically modified promotion. It is expected that the price may bottom out and rebound in the second half of 2025 with the warming of exports.
1. Policy Risk: Stricter environmental protection regulations in various countries may limit the use of traditional formulations.
2. Market Risk: A decline in agricultural product prices may dampen farmers' willingness to use pesticides.
3. Technical Risk: The spread of resistant weeds (23 species have been discovered globally) may force the research and development of alternative products.
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